U.S. Population Growth Slows as Immigration Falls

The United States is experiencing a sharp slowdown in population growth, a trend closely tied to President Donald Trump’s renewed crackdown on immigration.

According to population estimates released Tuesday (Jan. 27) by the U.S. Census Bureau, the U.S. population reached nearly 342 million people in 2025.

The population growth rate fell to 0.5% in 2025, a steep decline from nearly 1% in 2024, which had marked the fastest growth in two decades. That surge was largely driven by immigration. Census estimates place the U.S. population at approximately 340 million in 2024.

Net international migration increased by nearly 1.3 million people in 2025, down dramatically from 2.8 million in 2024. If current trends continue, net immigration is projected to fall to just 321,000 people by mid-2026, according to the Census Bureau. The estimates do not distinguish between legal and unauthorized immigration.

Historically, the U.S. has rarely seen population growth this slow. Over the past 125 years, the lowest growth rate occurred in 2021, during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, when population growth was just 0.16%, or 522,000 people, and immigration rose by only 376,000 due to global travel restrictions.

Before that, the last comparable slowdown occurred in 1919, during the Spanish flu pandemic, when population growth dipped below 0.5%.

Despite the immigration decline, births still exceeded deaths in 2025 by 519,000 people.

States Most Affected
The immigration slowdown has had a visible impact on states that traditionally attract large immigrant populations.

California recorded a net population loss of 9,500 residents in 2025, a dramatic reversal from the previous year, when the state gained 232,000 people. While domestic out-migration remained largely unchanged, net international immigration dropped sharply from 361,000 in 2024 to 109,000 in 2025.

Florida also saw declines in both international immigration and domestic migration. Rising housing costs and soaring insurance premiums have made the state less affordable. Florida added just 22,000 domestic migrants in 2025, down from 64,000 in 2024, while net international immigration fell from over 411,000 to 178,000.

New York posted a modest population increase of just 1,008 people, largely due to a drop in net immigration from 207,000 to 95,600.

Meanwhile, South Carolina, Idaho, and North Carolina recorded the highest annual growth rates, ranging from 1.3% to 1.5%. In absolute numbers, Texas, Florida, and North Carolina saw the largest population gains nationwide.

Immigration Enforcement Intensifies
The release of the new data comes as researchers assess the early impact of a second wave of immigration enforcement under Trump, who returned to the White House in January 2025.

Immigration particularly crossings at the southern border was a central issue in Trump’s successful 2024 presidential campaign.

The population estimates cover the period from July 2024 to July 2025, spanning the final months of the administration of Joe Biden and the first half of Trump’s current term.

While the data reflect the initial ramp-up of enforcement actions in Los Angeles and Portland, Oregon, they do not capture the effects of later crackdowns launched in Chicago; New Orleans; Memphis, Tennessee; and Minneapolis, Minnesota.

The contrast with 2024 is striking. That year, net international migration accounted for 84% of the nation’s population growth, adding 3.3 million people—a figure boosted in part by a revised counting method that included individuals admitted for humanitarian reasons.

“These numbers reflect the migration patterns we’ve been observing fewer people entering the country and more people leaving,” said Eric Jensen, a senior researcher at the Census Bureau, in a statement last week.

How the Numbers Are Calculated
Unlike the decennial census which determines congressional representation, Electoral College votes, and the allocation of $2.8 trillion in annual federal funding the Census Bureau’s population estimates rely on administrative records and internal data modeling.

The release of the 2025 estimates was delayed due to a federal government shutdown last fall and comes at a challenging time for U.S. statistical agencies.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics lost roughly 15% of its workforce last year amid voluntary buyouts and staff reductions tied to cost-cutting efforts by the White House and the Department of Government Efficiency.

Recent actions by the Trump administration, including the dismissal of Erika McEntarfer as commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, have raised concerns among experts about potential political interference in America’s federal statistical agencies.